SAN DIEGO MARKET UPDATE

December 15, 2025 | Patience Pays Off

The 2025 real estate market is closing with a clear theme: stability. After a year of navigating new industry rules and shifting interest rates, we are seeing a "return to normal" rather than a dramatic crash or spike. As we head into 2026, the data suggests that for both buyers and sellers, patience is finally starting to pay off.

 

🏛️ The Fed & Mortgage Rate Update

The News: At its final meeting of 2025 (Dec. 9–10), the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%.

The Impact: While this marks the third cut of the year, mortgage rates remain steady in the low 6% range (currently ~6.36%).

The Outlook: The Fed signaled a "wait-and-see" approach for 2026. We don’t expect rates to freefall, but as inflation cools and wages align, purchasing power is slowly returning.

 
 

📊 San Diego Market Snapshot (November 2025)

Data vs. Nov 2024. Single-Family (Detached) vs. Condos/Townhomes (Attached).

🏠 Prices: Holding Strong

Single-family home prices continue to rise, showing San Diego’s resilience, while the condo market offers new opportunities for entry-level buyers.

Detached Median Price: $1,050,000 (Up 3.0% year-over-year)
Attached Median Price: $660,000 (Down 1.5% year-over-year)
 

📉 Inventory: A Tale of Two Markets

Single-family inventory has tightened, keeping competition alive for good homes. However, condo inventory has jumped, giving buyers in that segment significantly more choices.

Detached Inventory: -6.0% (2,667 active listings)
Attached Inventory: +8.9% (2,016 active listings)
 

⏱️ Speed: The "Frenzy" is Over

Homes are taking longer to sell, which is good news for buyers who are tired of rushed decisions.

Days on Market: Detached homes are averaging 36 days (+19.4%), while Attached homes are at 49 days (+32.4%).
  

🔮 2026 Forecast: The "Great Reset"

Industry experts, including Zillow and Redfin, are calling 2026 a year of momentum, not fireworks.

Home Values: Zillow forecasts a modest 1.2% increase in home values nationally, signaling growing price stability.
Sales Activity: Expect more deals to get done. Existing home sales are projected to rise 4.3% as buyers and sellers stop waiting on the sidelines.

Rentals: With rent growth slowing (+0.3%), renting is becoming a stronger long-term strategy for many families, keeping the rental market robust.
 

💡 What This Means For You In The San Diego Market

For Buyers:

The winter slowdown combined with rising inventory in the condo market gives you leverage. You finally have time to negotiate inspections and repairs. With rates stabilizing around 6%, the "wait for 3%" strategy is fading—marry the house, date the rate.

For Sellers:

Pricing is everything. With Days on Market creeping up to ~36–49 days, don't panic if your home doesn't sell in a weekend. Buyers are active, but they are cost-conscious. Incentives like rate buydowns are the new "price cut" to keep your listing competitive.

Thinking of selling or buying, or need a custom strategy for your 2026 goals?  Let's chat anytime.  I’m here to help with all of your real estate needs!